Posterior Risk Probability.

Calculates the posterior probability of the risk event given observations of the root causes.

Usage

risk_post_prob(
  cause_probs,
  risks_given_causes,
  risks_given_not_causes,
  observed_causes
)

Arguments

cause_probs

A vector of prior probabilities for each root cause 'C_i'.

risks_given_causes

A vector of conditional probabilities of the risk event 'R' given each cause 'C_i'.

risks_given_not_causes

A vector of conditional probabilities of the risk event 'R' given not each cause 'C_i'.

observed_causes

A vector of observed values for each cause 'C_i' (1 if observed, 0 if not observed, NA if unobserved).

Value

A numeric value for the posterior probability of the risk event given the observed causes.

Examples

cause_probs <- c(0.3, 0.2)
risks_given_causes <- c(0.8, 0.6)
risks_given_not_causes <- c(0.2, 0.4)
observed_causes <- c(1, NA)
risk_post_prob <- risk_post_prob(cause_probs, risks_given_causes,
  risks_given_not_causes, observed_causes)
print(risk_post_prob)
#> [1] 0.6315789