This function calculates the posterior probability of a risk event 'R' occurring
based on observations of multiple root causes and their associated conditional probabilities.
Usage
risk_post_prob(
cause_probs,
risks_given_causes,
risks_given_not_causes,
observed_causes
)
Arguments
- cause_probs
A vector of prior probabilities for each root cause 'C_i'.
- risks_given_causes
A vector of conditional probabilities of the risk event 'R' given each cause 'C_i'.
- risks_given_not_causes
A vector of conditional probabilities of the risk event 'R' given not each cause 'C_i'.
- observed_causes
A vector of observed values for each cause 'C_i' (1 if observed, 0 if not observed, NA if unobserved).
Value
A numeric value for the posterior probability of the risk event given the observed causes.
References
Damnjanovic, Ivan, and Kenneth Reinschmidt. Data analytics for engineering and
construction project risk management. No. 172534. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2020.
Examples
cause_probs <- c(0.3, 0.2)
risks_given_causes <- c(0.8, 0.6)
risks_given_not_causes <- c(0.2, 0.4)
observed_causes <- c(1, NA)
risk_post_prob <- risk_post_prob(
cause_probs, risks_given_causes,
risks_given_not_causes, observed_causes
)
print(risk_post_prob)
#> [1] 0.6315789
